We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to control for the influence of an unobserved factor that can be decomposed into a contract-specific and a ti...

This paper investigates currency and financial crises in an optimizing general equilibrium model. It is shown that a rise in current and expected future budget deficits generates a real exchange rate appreciation and a decumulation of external assets, leading up to a currency crisis when foreign reserves approximate a critical level. Strong empirical support for our model is obtained by a probi...

The aim of this paper is to discuss the hedging techniques that a company based in an emerging market country can use to hedge the risk associated with jet fuel or kerosene. The company can be an airline company or a market intermediary offering contracts on this important commodity. An empirical analysis reveals two main directions for minimum risk hedging: one is to cross-hedge directly the c...

This paper analyzes the relationship between currency price changes and their expectations. Currency price change expectations are derived with the help of different order flow measures, from the trading behavior of investors on OANDA FXTrade, which is an internet trading platform in the foreign exchange market. We investigate whether forecasts of intra-day price changes on different sampling f...

We examine the effects of unconventional monetary policy surprises on the value of the dollar using high-frequency intraday data and contrast them with the effects of conventional policy tools. Identifying monetary policy surprises from changes in interest rate future prices in narrow windows around policy announcements, we find that monetary policy surprises since the Federal Reserve lowered i...

This paper estimates the speed of the adjustment coefficient in structural error correction models (ECM) and employs a system method for real exchange rates with Hansen and Sargent’s (1980, 1982) IV methods. Empirical results show that the half-lives of purchasing power parity deviations are less than one year in most cases. JEL classification: C22, F31, F41

This paper specifies two VAR models for testing efficiency and expectations in foreign exchange markets. The sufficient conditions for efficiency and rational expectations, by imposing restrictions on the VAR parameters, are derived. Based on these models, issues on testing efficiency and rationality are discussed with reference to previous empirical studies in the area.  2002 Elsevier Science...

Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984) we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current balance variables of corresponding economies. JEL Classification: G15, F31

Southern Cone economies exhibit a high record of exchange rate volatility. In this context, firms tend to contract dollar debt, irrespective of their trade orientation, and without available hedging instruments. This exposes them to bankruptcy risk, in the event of large exchange rate movements. This paper provides a framework to analyze the output effect of exchange rate uncertainty in that co...